La « vache » à traire n’en peut plus, Sonatrach, notre firme, puit de toutes les recettes qui ont fait vivre le pays depuis l’Indépendance ne pourra tenir le même rythme pour les années à venir..
Depuis la découverte du pétrole en Algérie (1957), on aurait consommé la moitié de nos réserves, et loin d’être inquiétante sur ce plan du fait que le pays dispose d’une assez réconfortable sécurité énergétique au moins jusqu’en 2040, selon les propos du ministre, mais la problématique interviendrait au niveau des recettes à l’export, ainsi que la consommation énergétique locale de plus en plus croissante. Si cette dernière, et en attendant le développent d’un autre mode de production et de consommation énergétique alternative local, est plutôt logique du fait d’un certain niveau de vie qui s’est élevé avec ses exigences de confort qui tire la courbe de la consommation, sous toutes ses formes, à la hausse, l’export demeure le premier facteur de l’équation qui pousse à l’inquiétude. En effet, le niveau des recettes à l’export connaissent, depuis un certain temps un recul drastique, 23,5 milliards de dollars pour l’année en cour, à titre d’illustration, alors la moyenne plus au moins confortable devrait osciller entre 35 à 40 milliards de dollars. Résultat de course, nous allons encore piocher, en cas de besoin, dans les réserves de changes, estimés à 57 milliards de dollars au premier semestre 2020 et qui s’amenuisent d’année en année.
De réelles solutions devraient être élaborées dans les deux à trois années à venir pour sortir de cette spirale étouffante, et qui dit réelles dit concrètes et réalisables, dans le court terme. Il est vrai qu’on tente d’explorer des créneaux, tout à fait nouveaux, à l’instar de nouvelle politique économique orientée vers ce qu’est commun d’appeler les « start-up », le monde de la technologie et ses ressources éventuelles, qui toutefois, rappelons-le, n’est pas la panacée et restent aléatoires. Le développement et l’appui aux technologies nouvelles demeurent, dans le cas de notre pays, pour le moment, plus un support aux autres secteurs économique pour une meilleure performance avec d’avantage d’efficacité et de transparence, qu’un créneau porteur dans l’immédiat. Les véritables niches et les plus rentables sont à chercher dans des secteurs déjà bien établis et bien ancrés dans notre tissu économique mais mal exploités, depuis des lustres. La panacée, s’il faut en chercher une, est dans notre secteur agricole et son complément, l’industrie agroalimentaire, dans les industries manufacturières, celles des produits pharmaceutiques, celui du tourisme dont il faut chercher, dès maintenant, à le préparer à la phase post-pandémie…en somme, il faut éviter de gaspiller les énergies, le temps et l’argent dans des pistes incertaines et se concentrer sur celles qui puissent réduire nos factures d’importations, en premier lieu, puis tenter d’explorer tout ce qui peut engendrer des ressources financières en devises et doper nos exportations, en dehors des hydrocarbures..
Mourad Hadjersi
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