A la uneEnergie

Pétrole : Vers un baril à 80 ou 100 dollars ?

Le Brent rampe vers 75 dollars, une demande accrue et des stocks américains en baisse avec la stabilité de l’offre peuvent pousser les prix au sommet cette année.

Les prix du pétrole ont prolongé leurs gains, aujourd’hui mercredi, alors que le brut de référence Brent s’est rapproché du niveau de 75 dollars le baril, soutenu par les attentes d’une reprise rapide de la demande de brut au second semestre de cette année, en plus des données indiquant un retrait important des stocks de brut américain.

Les prix ont reçu un soutien après que les deux plus grandes sociétés de négoce de pétrole au monde ont déclaré mardi qu’elles s’attendaient à ce que les prix du brut restent au-dessus de 70 dollars le baril, la demande devant revenir aux niveaux d’avant la pandémie au second semestre 2022.

Russell Hardy, PDG de Vitol, s’attend à ce que le pétrole oscille entre 70 et 80 dollars le baril d’ici 2021, soutenu par les attentes selon lesquelles le groupe « OPEP + » des principaux producteurs de brut maintiendra une discipline d’approvisionnement, même avec la possibilité que l’Iran reprendra ses exportations de brut, si les États-Unis renouent avec un accord nucléaire avec Téhéran.

Jeremy Weir, PDG de Trafigura Trading Corporation, de son côté, a déclaré qu’il y a une chance raisonnable que les prix atteignent 100 dollars le baril, en raison de la baisse des réserves avant que le monde n’atteigne le pic de la demande de pétrole.

L’American Petroleum Institute a annoncé mardi que les stocks de pétrole brut avaient chuté de 8,537 barils au cours de la semaine se terminant le 11 juin, tandis que les analystes s’attendaient à ce que le retrait des stocks au cours de cette semaine soit de l’ordre de 3,290 millions de barils. La semaine précédente, le nombre de retraits du stock américain de pétrole brut était supérieur aux attentes des analystes, à 2 108 millions de barils, selon les chiffres de l’American Petroleum Institute.

« Cette augmentation des sorties de stocks, avec la réticence du marché à calculer l’augmentation de la production, suite à ce qui semble faire obstacle à des résultats décisifs dans les négociations de l’accord nucléaire iranien, excluant ainsi une augmentation significative de la production iranienne, ce qui a poussé les prix du brut », estiment les spécialiste. Par conséquent, Standard & Poor’s, l’agence de notation de crédit, a publié mardi un rapport sur les anticipations d’une hausse des prix du pétrole au niveau de 100 dollars le baril cette année, et non l’année prochaine, comme cela était prévu auparavant.

M.H

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