En 2021, les exportations de GNL des États-Unis ont pour la première fois dépassé le niveau des exportations gazières de ce pays via gazoducs. Et la croissance du GNL américain devrait se poursuivre selon l’EIA américaine (U.S. Energy Information Administration) , alors que les pays européens cherchent à diversifier leurs approvisionnements pour moins dépendre du gaz russe.
Les États-Unis sont devenus exportateurs nets de gaz naturel en 2017 et ont depuis augmenté significativement leurs exportations, tant par gazoduc que sous forme liquéfiée (GNL). En 2021, les flux de GNL ont compté pour 53,5% de l’ensemble des exportations américaines de gaz naturel (57,7% au 1er trimestre 2022).
Selon les prévisions de l’EIA, les exportations américaines de gaz sous forme de GNL pourraient augmenter de 2,4 milliards de pieds cubes par jour en 2022 pour atteindre une moyenne annuelle de 12,2 milliards de pieds cubes par jour, soit une hausse de 25% par rapport à 2021. Ce qui permettrait aux États-Unis de « dépasser l’Australie et le Qatar et de devenir le plus grand exportateur mondial de GNL » selon l’EIA. Au mois de mars 2022, les exportations américaines de GNL ont déjà atteint un niveau record de 11,9 milliards de pieds cubes.
Les exportations américaines de gaz par gazoducs (vers le Mexique et le Canada) pourraient quant à elles augmenter « légèrement » de 0,3 milliards de pieds cubes par jour en 2022 selon les estimations de l’EIA.
Au total, les États-Unis ont exporté au 1er trimestre 2022 l’équivalent d’environ un cinquième de leur production de gaz naturel.
Les incertitudes liées à la guerre en Ukraine ont eu un impact majeur sur le marché du GNL. Depuis décembre 2021, la majorité des exportations américaines de GNL sont destinées au marché européen : 15 pays de l’Union européenne (UE) et le Royaume-Uni sont en capacité d’importer du GNL (l’Espagne, le Royaume-Uni et la France dispose des principales capacités européennes d’importations).
Près de 57% des exportations américaines de GNL entre décembre 2021 et février 2022 ont ainsi été livrées aux pays de l’UE et au Royaume-Uni, contre 27% durant la période de janvier à novembre 2021 (et 49% vers l’Asie).
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