Le FMI a prévenu samedi qu’une escalade du conflit en Ukraine aurait de lourdes conséquences économiques, liées au conflit lui-même mais aussi aux sanctions contre la Russie.
Une escalade du conflit en Ukraine aurait des conséquences économiques « dévastatrices » au niveau mondial, a prévenu samedi le Fonds monétaire international (FMI). Outre le conflit lui-même, les sanctions imposées à la Russie « auront aussi un impact substantiel sur l’économie mondiale et les marchés financiers, avec des effets collatéraux pour d’autres pays », a également averti le FMI. Même si les prévisions restent soumises à une « extraordinaire incertitude », « les conséquences économiques sont déjà très sérieuses », constate l’institution.
La flambée des prix de l’énergie et des matières premières en général, avec un baril de pétrole désormais proche de 120 dollars, ajoutent à la poussée inflationniste que connaissait déjà le monde en sortie de pandémie. « Le bond des prix aura des effets dans le monde entier, en particulier sur les ménages modestes pour lesquels les dépenses alimentaires et d’énergie représentent une proportion plus importante » de leur budget que la moyenne, anticipe le Fonds.
Quant à l’Ukraine, il est « déjà clair » que le pays aura à faire face à des coûts « significatifs » lié au redémarrage de l’économie et à la reconstruction des bâtiments et installations détruits ou endommagés. Le Fonds a indiqué que l’aide financière d’urgence demandée par l’Ukraine, et dont le FMI avait fait état dès le 25 février, se montait à 1,4 milliard de dollars. La demande pourrait être formellement soumise au conseil d’administration du FMI « dès la semaine prochaine », selon le communiqué publié samedi.
Les pays ayant des relations étroites avec l’Ukraine et la Russie sont « particulièrement à risque de pénuries et de problèmes d’approvisionnement », souligne le FMI. Le Fonds a ainsi indiqué que la Moldavie avait demandé un recalibrage et une augmentation du plan de soutien dont elle bénéficie déjà de la part de l’institution, pour « faire face aux coûts de la crise actuelle ». Le FMI précise avoir déjà engagé des discussions sur ce sujet avec le gouvernement moldave.
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