Le pétrole devrait atteindre 80 dollars le baril, malgré le retour probable des approvisionnements de l’Iran et un déficit sans précédent dans les budgets des États du Golfe.
Les prévisions de « Goldman Sachs » s’attendent à ce que les prix du pétrole atteignent 80 dollars le baril au quatrième trimestre de cette année, expliquant que le marché n’a pas amélioré l’estimation de la reprise de la demande, malgré la possible reprise des approvisionnements en brut iranien.
« Les justifications de la hausse des prix du pétrole restent les mêmes, compte tenu de l’augmentation significative de la demande, avec l’élargissement du périmètre de vaccination (à partir de Covid-19) face à des approvisionnements inflexibles », a indiqué la banque dans une note datée de ce dimanche 23 Mai.
Il ajoute que l’hypothèse du retour des exportations iraniennes en juillet n’exclut pas que les prix du Brent soient toujours en voie d’atteindre 80 dollars au quatrième trimestre.
Les prix du pétrole ont chuté la semaine dernière, après que le président iranien Hassan Rohani a déclaré que les États-Unis étaient prêts à lever les sanctions contre les secteurs pétrolier, bancaire et maritime de son pays.
Mais le brut a compensé certaines de ces pertes aujourd’hui, lundi, alors qu’un obstacle potentiel est apparu dans les efforts de relance de l’accord nucléaire iranien signé en 2015, que les efforts pourraient ajouter aux approvisionnements en pétrole. Les pourparlers entre Washington et Téhéran devraient reprendre cette semaine.
Goldman Sachs déclare que la reprise de la demande sur les marchés développés compenserait l’impact du récent coup porté à la consommation en raison de la pandémie et le ralentissement possible de la reprise qui a suivi en Asie du Sud et en Amérique latine. La banque s’attend à ce que la demande augmente de 4,6 millions de barils par jour jusqu’à la fin de l’année, ce qui indique que l’essentiel de l’augmentation est probable au cours des trois prochains mois.
Dans la même note, il est précisé que « Les mouvements augmentent rapidement aux États-Unis et en Europe, avec l’accélération du rythme de la vaccination et la levée des mesures générales d’isolement, ainsi que l’augmentation du mouvement du secteur maritime et des activités industrielles.. »
La banque s’attendait également à ce que l’Organisation des pays exportateurs de pétrole (OPEP) et ses alliés dirigés par la Russie, un groupe connu sous le nom de « OPEP Plus », égalisent toute augmentation de la production iranienne en arrêtant l’augmentation de la production au cours de la seconde moitié de cette année pour une période de deux mois.
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